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☆ Here's why Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may be smaller in 2025 and beyond
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Peopleimages | Istock | Getty ImagesEarly estimates for the 2025 Social Security COLANew government data points to a 2.4% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025, The Senior Citizens League estimates, based on new government inflation data released this week. The Social Security Administration typically announces the cost-of-living adjustment for the following year in October. In the meantime, experts say there are steps retirees can take to help compensate for the prospect of lower benefit increases. Annuities, which provide fixed income in retirement in exchange for a lump-sum investment, can be one way to supplement a retiree's income, LaVigne said. Consult with a financial advisorBefore purchasing an annuity or other retirement income strategy, it helps to consult with a professional.

Persons: " Johnson, Johnson, Lisa Featherngill, Featherngill, Kelly LaVigne, You've, LaVigne Organizations: Istock, Getty, Security COLA, Social Security, Senior Citizens League, Urban, Clerical Workers, CPI, Comerica Wealth Management, Social, Allianz Life Locations: Winston, Salem , North Carolina

☆ How to make your money work for you over the next decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( James Faris | William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.

Persons: —, Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries

☆ Can America afford two wars? Here’s what the bond market thinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —If you want to aggravate the US bond market, just remind traders how high the nation’s budget deficit is. The latest tally from the Treasury Department for the fiscal year that ended September 30 put the deficit at $1.7 trillion. All else being equal, that tends to push bond prices down, which causes yields to go higher. That suggests there are other factors that may be outweighing the effects of the war that are driving yields higher, said Snyderman. Also, since the debt ceiling was suspended in June, the Treasury has been issuing more bonds to fund government spending, pushing bond prices down.

Persons: it’s, Joe, That’s, shrugged, Lisa Shalett, Janet Yellen, Rachel Snyderman, Biden, ” Snyderman, John Lynch, Israel doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Center, CNN, , Congressional, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Fitch, Moody’s, Service, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza, United States

☆ Soaring Treasury yields threaten long-term performance of US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This year’s climb in Treasury yields is changing that calculus, as government bonds offer income that is viewed as risk-free to investors who hold them to term. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about a full percentage point since then. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Stocks have averaged a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 over the last 10 years, while the term premium has averaged -0.3%. That compares with a historical average forward P/E of 15.6 and a term premium of 1.4% since 1985.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Elon Musk, John Lynch, Lynch, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, Keith Lerner, ” Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Dan Burns, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Soaring U.S, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, . Treasury, BofA Global Research, LPL, Comerica Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, John Hancock Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Advisory, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Forget about a recession sinking the stock market. Rising rates threaten to spoil the party just like they did in 2022.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.

Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Sluggish US earnings may need pick-me-up to support 2023 stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has edged higher since earnings season began in July, with the benchmark index up 16% in 2023. Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are seen rising 1.3% on a year-over-year basis, according to Refinitiv, before a 9.7% fourth-quarter earnings rise and a 11.9% full-year increase in 2024. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, the S&P 500 has become more richly valued. Q2 RESULTSWith 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter results, 78.7% posted earnings above analysts' expectations, according to Refinitiv IBES.

Persons: Mike Segar, Eric Freedman, Refinitiv, Anthony Saglimbene, Julian Emanuel, Evercore, Emanuel, John Lynch, Ned Davis, Comerica's Lynch, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Stock, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Credit Suisse, Ameriprise Financial, Comerica Wealth Management, Apple, Walmart, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After first-half rally, stocks' July winning streak on the line
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 defied recession fears and a U.S. banking crisis to notch a 15.9% gain in the first half. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has posted a positive return in eight consecutive Julys, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) has climbed in July for 15 straight years. S&P 500 companies are expected to post an overall drop in earnings of 5.7% from the year-earlier period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 is trading at 19.1 times forward earnings estimates, well above its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream. "At some point, this move in interest rates has got to have some consequences for the markets," Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, Omar Aguilar, Refinitiv IBES, “, John Lynch, Refinitiv, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, ” Reuters, American Association of, Fed, Schwab Asset Management, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Comerica Wealth Management, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ The AI-powered rally to start the year could broaden out in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks markets are wrapping up a surprisingly strong start to the year, but whether it will continue is an open question as investors wade into a seasonally weak period for markets. Even the laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average, with few tech stocks, managed to eke out a 3.6% gain. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla account for 80% of the gains in the S & P 500, according to UBS. The S & P 500 health sector is down almost 3% this year. Next week marks the start of July and the third quarter of 2023.

Persons: didn't, Jamie Cox, Cox, John Lynch, Harris Financial's Cox, that's, Comerica's Lynch, Kim Forrest, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Spring, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Harris Financial, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, UBS, Comerica Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Investors, Bokeh Capital Partners, Independence, P Global, PMI, Tuesday U.S

☆ Fading risks, fear of missing out may fuel US stocks after near 20% rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Further strength might beget further strength because of the FOMO factor," he added, using the popular acronym for "fear of missing out." "Inflation has clearly subsided, and yet labor market strength has remained intact," wrote BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski in a recent note. “Moving past the debt ceiling and at least having some economic data that looks ok is actually enough to get some people interested,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. Lerner on Monday shifted his expected S&P 500 range for this year up to 3,800-4,500, from 3,400-4,300 previously, citing improving earnings trends among other factors. For Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co, that’s an ominous sign.

Persons: Cash, Chuck Carlson, Brian Belski, BofA, ”, Keith Lerner, Lerner, Monday, John Lynch, Hans Olsen, Olsen, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, BofA Global, Deutsche Bank, Horizon Investment Services, BMO Capital Markets, ” BMO, Reuters Graphics, ISI, Advisory, Comerica Wealth Management, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters, Thomson

☆ Analysis: US debt ceiling deal could stall safety flight fueling megacap rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

☆ The top commentators in markets say the bank crisis isn't anywhere close to over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're looking at what some of Wall Street's top investors and commentators say has to happen to curb the banking tumult. The shuttered bank had disclosed in its first-quarter earnings report that customers pulled over $100 billion of deposits in three-months. But even if the regulator did insure more money, former FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams said Thursday a move like that would only cost banks' customers more. A stock market portfolio created by ChatGPT is outperforming the top UK investment funds. Stock market investors should keep an eye out for five key indicators with volatility set to ramp up through the end of the year.

☆ Here are 5 things stock market investors should watch for with volatility set to ramp up through year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed on Wednesday issued its 10th straight interest rate increase to a near 20-year high of 5%-5.25%. The latest move comes as the US bond market flashes recession warnings as steeper borrowing costs put pressure on the economy. Comerica Wealth Management2. Comerica Wealth Management4. But Comerica Wealth said it sees the signal from corporate bonds as less ominous.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.29%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 44.48 points, or 2.51%. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Fed rate hike campaign in question as bank stocks swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data on deck for markets hit by worries about Fed, banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.

☆ Jerome Powell isn't winning any popularity contests among investors as markets booed his testimony on Tuesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If you missed Jerome Powell's remarks from his first day on Capitol Hill yesterday, the TLDR is that more rate hikes are coming because the economy's still running hot. The market response to Powell's testimony was anything but muted. The idea is to eventually lower inflation — which most recently clocked in at 6.4% — but the more rate hikes we see, the greater the risk of a recession. So in short: stocks sold off, bond yields jumped, and traders eyed greater potential for a bigger rate hike this month. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said.

The remarks followed recent data showing an unexpected inflation increase in January and an unusually large jobs gain for the month. Traders dramatically raised their bets for a 50-basis-point rate hike in March after Powell's comments, with money market futures last pricing in a more than 70% chance of such a move, up from around 31% on Monday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Data influencing the Fed's rate hiking path will include Friday's closely watched nonfarm payroll additions for February. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes , which best reflects short-term rate expectations, hit 5% for the first time since July 2007. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) rallied 11% after the retailer forecast annual earnings above Wall Street estimates and more than doubled its quarterly dividend.

Equities lost ground right after Powell's prepared remarks were released ahead of his testimony and sank further as the session wore on. Powell told U.S. lawmakers the Fed is prepared to move in larger steps if economic data suggests tougher measures are needed to control rising prices. Data the Fed will use to influence its rate hiking path will include Friday's non-farm payroll numbers. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes , which best reflects short-term rate expectations, hit 5% for the first time since July 2007. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) was up 9.6% after the retailer forecast annual earnings above Wall Street estimates and more than doubled its quarterly dividend.

☆ Jerome Powell's testimony is rattling markets. Here's what 4 strategists are saying about the Fed's hawkish stance.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

On the first day of testimony to lawmakers, Jerome Powell said the Fed will likely raise rates higher than expected. Traders are pricing in higher odds of a 50 basis-point move this month after Powell's comments. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management"Unsurprisingly, Chairman Powell delivered a message with hawkish undertones in his testimony to Congress. Higher rates and inflation should prove a headwind for P/E expansion, so investors should expect total return to derive from earnings and income." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial"Rates will likely be higher than expected, but inflation is still the wild card as the Fed remains data-dependent.

☆ Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors look ahead to Federal Reserve speakers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are flat Thursday evening as investors responded to data that elevated concerns of a looming recession and looked ahead to a slate of Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for Friday. They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank's view of the economy. There also will be data coming in the morning with December's purchasing managers' indexes within services and manufacturing. Manufacturing is expected to come in at the same rate as November, while services is expected to increase by 0.3 points.

☆ Analysis: Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.

☆ Stock futures are flat ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were flat Tuesday evening as traders look ahead to Wednesday's interest rate hike announcement from the Federal Reserve. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.07% and 0.07%, respectively. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield surged as high as 3.99%, its highest level since 2007. "To be sure, the recent technical weakness in stock prices must now contend with the resolve of monetary policy makers in their fight against inflation." He added that third-quarter earnings season may also add headwinds for stock prices if they show further margin erosion for U.S. companies.

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